 | News Alert |
| Issue 370, 1 May 2014 |
| Science for Environment Policy |
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| In this issue |
Longer droughts and more water shortages in Europe forecast under climate change
Climate change will substantially increase the severity and length of droughts in Europe by the end of the century, according to new research. The study showed that some European countries could experience a reduction in river flow of up to 80% by the 2080s.
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Cities shown to shelter threatened wildlife – but good urban planning is key
Although cities are typically low in biodiversity, they can provide important refuges for native species, new research shows. Urban planning making use of green infrastructure can enhance city habitats and may help reduce the loss of biodiversity that follows urban expansion, the researchers say.
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Offshore renewable energy sites provide new habitat for marine species
Offshore renewable energy sites may provide new 'stepping stone' habitats for marine species, a recent study suggests. They could allow some species to spread beyond their present range and help vulnerable creatures survive in the face of climate change. However, they may also allow harmful invasive species to spread, the researchers warn, and the effects of such projects must be assessed by examining their impacts on the ecosystem as a whole.
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PM2.5 air pollution strongly linked to increased risk of heart attacks
Long-term exposure to particulate matter pollution is strongly linked with heart attacks and angina, a new European study of over 100 000 people has shown. The results indicate that this association exists at levels below current European limits, and that the burden of disease due to particulate matter may have been largely underestimated.
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New guide to help reduce pesticide pollution in aquatic ecosystems
Pollution from agricultural pesticides can present a serious threat to aquatic ecosystems. Researchers have now developed a guide to identify the most appropriate measures to reduce pesticides entering waterways. It focuses on reducing pesticide entry via spray drift or runoff.
(more...) Download article (PDF)
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Seafloor trawling's ecological impacts revealed by simple sampling system
Trawling's impacts on marine ecosystems can be assessed using simple metrics which characterise easy-to-obtain samples of fish, new research suggests. The Portuguese study shows that groups of fish become dominated by fewer species as fishing intensity increases, while their total biomass declines. Moreover, in the most fished areas there were other noteworthy changes, such as substantial reductions in the proportion of sharks and rays.
(more...) Download article (PDF)
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Climate change will substantially increase the severity and length of droughts in Europe by the end of the century, according to new research. The study showed that some European countries could experience a reduction in river flow of up to 80% by the 2080s.
Rising temperatures and shifting weather patterns caused by climate change are expected to alter water supply throughout Europe. This has raised concerns about an increase in the frequency of extreme droughts, and the severe impacts these events can have. For example, the 2003 drought in southern and central Europe was estimated to have caused more than €8.7 billion in economic damage.
Climate change's impacts on water resources will require adaptation of infrastructure, economies and society to minimise potential socioeconomic and environmental damage. For decision makers to plan such adaptation strategies, it is important to know how drought conditions are likely to develop.
This study analysed how climate change and human water usage in Europe might interact to affect the frequency, length and severity of droughts over time. The researchers used a number of possible future scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions and water consumption combined with the latest climate models. This allowed them to calculate past and predicted water resources and climate at a regional level throughout Europe, over the period 1961- 2100.
The results show that, by the end of the century, demand for water is likely to exceed available amounts across many river basins throughout Europe. Southern Europe would be most affected by drought, with flow levels of rivers and streams in the Iberian Peninsula, south of France, Italy, and the Balkan region reduced by almost 40% due to climate change alone.
In northern Europe droughts were expected to become less severe with the flow levels of rivers increasing by up to 20% by the end of the 21st century, as a result of increased rainfall. However, some areas of northern Europe, such as along the Norwegian west coast and southern Sweden, show the opposite trend. This is attributed to reduced accumulation of snow in winter.
Intensive water consumption resulted in an increase of 10-30% in the severity of droughts in southern, western and central Europe and, to a lesser extent, the United Kingdom. However, the authors highlight that these results are from the scenario with the largest water consumption rates and as such represent a 'worst case' scenario for water use.
The authors also highlight that competition for water – between sectors such as energy, agriculture and households – is likely to increase in drought periods. Reducing the socioeconomic and environmental effects of this competition could present a challenge to policymakers developing climate change adaptation strategies.
Source: Forzieri, G., Feyen, L., Rojas, R., et al. (2014). Ensemble projections of future streamflow droughts in Europe. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18(1), 85–108. DOI:10.5194/hess-18-85-2014.
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Although cities are typically low in biodiversity, they can provide important refuges for native species, new research shows. Urban planning making use of green infrastructure can enhance city habitats and may help reduce the loss of biodiversity that follows urban expansion, the researchers say.
Cities currently cover around 3% of the Earth's surface and harbour around 70% of its human population. Urban populations are expanding faster than the rate of global population growth as, increasingly, people are moving from rural to urban areas. Urban sprawl can have severe effects on local wildlife by degrading habitats and disrupting migration routes.
Cities share structural characteristics, creating similar habitats across the globe. Combined with a higher risk of introduction of non-native species than in rural areas, it is thought some urban species have become ubiquitous, so-called 'cosmopolitan species'. Invasions of cosmopolitan species and reductions in local biodiversity are thought to lead to global similarity of urban biodiversity.
Previous research has focused on the effects of urbanisation over individual regions or for particular cities. However, the present study investigates how urbanisation affects biodiversity on a global scale, and identifies human activities that drive biodiversity loss.
The researchers analysed data on plants in 110 cities and data on birds in 54 cities around the world to determine the diversity of native and non-native plant and bird species in each city. They also analysed the data for patterns and predictors (both human and natural) of urban species diversity, such as the percentage of natural vegetation or urban land cover within a 15 km radius of the city centre, city age, annual average temperature and latitude. The results for each city were also compared to estimates of biodiversity in nearby undeveloped areas.
Cities contained, on average, only 8% of the native bird and 25% of the native plant species found in nearby undeveloped areas. Despite this, a total of 36 bird and 65 plant species of conservation concern were supported in cities. Threatened plants were found in 8% of cities and 30% of cities were home to threatened bird species. Four 'cosmopolitan' bird species were found in more than 80% of cities, such as the rock pigeon (Columba livia) in 51 cities, and 11 'cosmopolitan' plants were found in more than 90% of cities, such as the annual meadow grass (Poa annua) in 105 cities.
For both plants and birds, species diversity in cities was best explained by anthropogenic features of the city, such as city age, rather than natural factors, such as average temperature. The diversity of bird species was most negatively affected by urban land cover, indicating that vegetation is an important factor for bird conservation. Plant species were positively affected by city age and, unsurprisingly, higher percentages of intact vegetation were found to preserve plant species.
Taken together, the findings indicate that although urbanisation has significant, negative effects on biodiversity, cities are able to provide a refuge for some threatened species. Improved urban planning and conservation efforts within cities, such as preserving and restoring native vegetation and establishing sufficient green spaces, could reduce the biodiversity declines associated with urban expansion, the researchers conclude.
Source: Aronson, M. F. J., La Sorte, F. A., Nilon, C. H., et al. (2014). A global analysis of the impacts of urbanization on bird and plant diversity reveals key anthropogenic drivers. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 281(1780). DOI:10.1098/rspb.2013.3330.
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Offshore renewable energy sites may provide new 'stepping stone' habitats for marine species, a recent study suggests. They could allow some species to spread beyond their present range and help vulnerable creatures survive in the face of climate change. However, they may also allow harmful invasive species to spread, the researchers warn, and the effects of such projects must be assessed by examining their impacts on the ecosystem as a whole.
Sources of offshore renewable energy, such as wind farms, are a growing element of energy supply for many countries. These structures may also provide new artificial habitats for marine wildlife, allowing them to spread into areas they would not otherwise be able to access.
Although they would not provide a fully functioning ecosystem, they could be beneficial in some cases, allowing species to colonise new areas if their original habitat becomes unsuitable under climate change. However, they may also allow invasive species to spread, damaging existing habitats. As such, the potential effect of such structures on biodiversity remains a key question.
In this partly-EU funded study1, researchers developed a new model to predict how offshore installations, such as wind, wave and tidal energy developments, would affect the spread of marine species. They specifically considered the potential effects of wind installations that are under consideration in the UK, off the coasts of Scotland and Northern Ireland. The study focused on the effects on species which have mobile larvae that drift in the open ocean before settling, such as barnacles, mussels and limpets.
The model indicated that the installations in the proposed areas could potentially act as 'stepping stones'. Species currently only found abundantly in Northern Ireland, such as the 'lined top shell' snail (Phorcus lineatus) and the purple sea urchin (Paracentrotus lividus), may be able to invade and establish on the Scottish coastline. This would primarily mean native intertidal species, such as sea snails, urchins and algae, but also potentially invasive species, such as the Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas).
The results suggested that the installations would encourage the species to disperse towards the north and that sea currents which transport larvae have more influence on spreading species than the actual dispersal distance.
Whether dispersal events alter spatial patterns of biodiversity also depends on how environmental conditions in the region are affected by climate change. Several invasive species are presently restricted from becoming established beyond southern Scotland by spawning temperature requirements. For organisms that are at the southern limit of their range in Northern Ireland, bridging dispersal barriers between suitable habitat sites will be essential in tracking suitable environmental conditions.
It is already recommended that surveys of renewable energy sites monitor the spread of invasive species and assess their effects on the wider ecosystem. However, the study's authors also advise increased monitoring for species with mobile larvae, to allow detection well before they reach foreign shorelines.
Using models similar to that used in this study could help predict the shoreline sites where invading species are most likely to arrive, they say. Such information is important, not just for conservation and protection against the damage that invasive species can do, but also for maintaining aquaculture and marina operations.
1. ASIMUTH (Applied Simulations and Integrated Modelling for the Understanding of Toxic and Harmful Algal Blooms) and HYPOX (In Situ Monitoring of Oxygen Depletion Associated with Hypoxic Ecosystems of Coastal and Open Seas, and Land-Locked Water Bodies) are supported by the European Commission under the Seventh Framework Programmes projects. See: www.asimuth.eu and www.hypox.net MaREE (Marine Renewable Energy and the Environment) was supported by the European Regional Development Fund.
Source: Adams, T. P., Miller, R. G., Aleynik, D., et al. (2014). Offshore marine renewable energy devices as stepping stones across biogeographical boundaries. Journal of Applied Ecology. 51: 330-338 DOI:10.1111/1365-2664.12207.
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 PM2.5 air pollution strongly linked to increased risk of heart attacks
Long-term exposure to particulate matter pollution is strongly linked with heart attacks and angina, a new European study of over 100 000 people has shown. The results indicate that this association exists at levels below current European limits, and that the burden of disease due to particulate matter may have been largely underestimated.
In 2008, the EU adopted a new Air Quality Directive which merged existing legislation into a single directive. In response to evidence linking long-term exposure to particulate pollution with increased mortality, it included new concentration limits for PM2.5 (particulate matter with a diameter of less than 2.5 micrometres) of 25 micrograms per cubic metre (μg/m3). These are to be met everywhere in the EU as from 1 January 2015.
Particulate air pollution is estimated by the World Health Organisation (WHO) to cause more than 3 million deaths per year worldwide. However, estimates of its effects on public health have been primarily based on data from North America.
In order to complement previous studies, the EU-funded ESCAPE project1 was set up to study air pollution's impacts on human health in Europe specifically. The researchers used data from several European studies to investigate the effects of long-term exposure to PM2.5 pollution on acute coronary events, such as heart attacks and angina.
The data were collected from 100 000 people across five European countries (Denmark, Finland, Germany, Italy and Sweden), following each person for an average of 11.5 years. The study accounted and adjusted for a number of known risk factors for acute coronary events, such as smoking, existing illness and socioeconomic factors. Estimates of air pollution concentrations at participants' home addresses were calculated using mathematical models based on measurements taken over the course of a year.
The model results indicated that individuals were exposed to average annual concentrations of PM2.5 ranging from 7.3 μg/m3 in Sweden to 31.0 μg/m3 in Italy. The risk of coronary events was raised by 13% for each 5 μg/m3 increase in annual PM2.5 concentration. During the study period, a total of 5 157 participants (around 5%) experienced acute coronary events.
Even at concentrations below existing EU limits, PM2.5 increased the risk of acute coronary events. This suggests that particulate matter pollution is a greater risk to health than previously thought. The study's authors conclude that these results, taken together with other findings from the ESCAPE project, present a strong case for further revising EU PM2.5 limits. This can better protect public health say the researchers, and point to the stricter WHO recommended limit for PM2.5 of 10 μg/m3.
The authors also highlight the fact that previous studies mainly considered only mortality. This study, however, included non-fatal measures of coronary disease giving a clearer picture of the overall burden of disease due to particulate matter in Europe.
1.The European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE) was supported by the European Commission under the Seventh Framework Programme. See: www.escapeproject.eu
Source: Cesaroni, G., Forastiere F., Stafoggia, M. et al. (2014). Long term exposure to ambient air pollution and incidence of acute coronary events: prospective cohort study and meta-analysis in 11 European cohorts from the ESCAPE Project. British Medical Journal. 7412: 1–16. DOI:10.1136/bmj.f7412. This study is free to view at: www.bmj.com/content/348/bmj.f7412
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Pollution from agricultural pesticides can present a serious threat to aquatic ecosystems. Researchers have now developed a guide to identify the most appropriate measures to reduce pesticides entering waterways. It focuses on reducing pesticide entry via spray drift or runoff.
In Europe, the Sustainable Use of Pesticides Directive has established a framework which is designed to reduce the risks and impacts of pesticide use on human health and the environment. The Directive requires EU Member States to develop National Action Plans with objectives, targets and measures to reduce the risks associated with applying pesticides.
Measures to reduce pesticide pollution can be grouped into two categories:
1.) Those related to applying pesticides, which either reduce their harmful effects or levels of exposure for wildlife. For example, pesticides with lower toxicity can be used, or no-spray zones can be set-up.
2.) Those related to changing the landscape structure. These reduce pesticide exposure in surface waters using buffer strips of plants alongside rivers, or by creating retention ponds and ditches.
This study describes a new user guide to identify suitable measures to reduce pesticide pollution at the stream catchment scale. The guide was developed in Germany and it focuses on pesticide contamination via spray drift and surface runoff. Drainage through the soil from agricultural land, which is less of a problem in Germany, was not included in the guide.
The first step in the guide is to survey and map the catchment landscape for relevant features, including vegetation buffer strips, the type of buffer vegetation, the slope of agricultural fields and 'flow paths' that concentrate runoff, for example, gullies formed by soil erosion or drainage ditches.
The next step involves using an 'identification key' to assess the potential for pesticides to enter water bodies, based on information in the landscape survey. Users answer a series of questions about the landscape features to arrive at recommended mitigation measures. The guide gives details of how effective such measures are in reducing exposure, and how feasible and acceptable such measures are likely to be. Users of the guide can compare the different measures to decide which measure or combination of measures to adopt.
For example, spray drift reducing techniques are highly effective, relatively easy application-related measures that are considered to be readily acceptable by farmers. Planting vegetated buffers on flow paths, such as erosion gullies, is recommended as being a highly effective landscape-related measure that is easy to implement and which would be moderately acceptable to farmers.
Although this guide was developed for use in Germany, the researchers say that it may be suitable for other European countries that have similar agricultural environments.
Source: Bereswill, R., Streloke, M. and Schulz, R. (2014). Risk mitigation measures for diffuse pesticide entry into aquatic ecosystems: proposal of a guide to identify appropriate measures on a catchment scale. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management. DOI 10.1002/ieam.1517.
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Trawling's impacts on marine ecosystems can be assessed using simple metrics which characterise easy-to-obtain samples of fish, new research suggests. The Portuguese study shows that groups of fish become dominated by fewer species as fishing intensity increases, while their total biomass declines. Moreover, in the most fished areas there were other noteworthy changes, such as substantial reductions in the proportion of sharks and rays.
Bottom trawling, a form of fishing which involves dragging nets along the seafloor, can have devastating effects on marine life. The heavy equipment used to hold the net open can damage habitats, changing the structure and function of these sensitive environments.
The EU's Marine Strategy Framework Directive was established to protect Europe's marine environment, addressing all human activities that have an impact on the marine environment while supporting the sustainable use of the goods and services it provides. It places ecosystems at the centre of management decisions and requires Member States to implement measures to achieve or maintain 'good environmental status' by 2020.
This study looked at how groups of fish can be used to indicate the ecological impacts of bottom trawling. The researchers undertook 30-minute trawls at 97 sites of soft-bottomed habitat along the Portuguese coast between 2006 and 2010. They then characterised the groups of fish they caught using 24 metrics which may be useful as indicators of environmental status as defined by the Directive. These included total biomass and the proportion of different types of species found in each sample haul.
They also estimated the trawling intensity, or fishing pressure, along the coast, and considered its impact on the metrics. Trawling intensity was measured using information from the Vessel Monitoring System, which tracks fishing boats larger than 15 metres in European waters.
Out of the 24 metrics, total biomass and dominance (i.e. the number of species that made up 90% of the total biomass) were the most sensitive to fishing pressure. As trawling increased the total biomass fell, and the group was more likely to be dominated by fewer species.
The other three metrics strongly affected by trawling were: the proportion of sedentary fish (those with limited movement and well-defined home ranges), fish with low a low capacity to recover from environmental disturbance and cartilaginous fish, such as sharks and rays. Low proportions of these fish in each sample indicated higher fishing pressure. The authors of the study note that such loss of diversity weakens ecosystems, and makes them more vulnerable to changes in the environment.
The researchers identified three critical thresholds, depending on the metric being assessed. Changes in the fish groups detected above these thresholds can provide an early warning of changes to the functioning of marine ecosystems. Biomass declined quickly from a low threshold of fishing intensity, sedentary fish were negatively affected at medium levels of intensity and at high levels species with low resilience were significantly affected.
These indicators were developed to assess the effects of trawling activity off the Portuguese coast. However, similar indicators could be developed for ecosystem-based management in other regions, the researchers say.
Source: Henriques, S., Pais, M.P., Vasconcelos, R.P., et al. (2014). Structural and functional trends indicate fishing pressure on marine fish assemblages. Journal of Applied Ecology. DOI:10.1111/1365-2664.12235.. DOI 10.1002/ieam.1517.
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